NBA Finals Update: Tight Odds as Pacers Host Game 3

With the NBA Finals tied 1-1, the series now moves to Indiana—where both momentum and betting markets hang in the balance. The Pacers return home after splitting games on the road against the Oklahoma City Thunder, giving them a short-lived edge in home-court advantage.

Early series odds had Oklahoma City as slight favorites at -135. Indiana sat close behind at +115. But the Game 1 upset—sealed by Tyrese Haliburton’s game-winner—flipped those odds. Some sportsbooks even installed Indiana as the new favorite before Game 2.

That swing didn’t last long. The Thunder roared back with a decisive 123–107 win, evening the series and the markets. Most books now offer Oklahoma City at -120 and Indiana at +100. The margins are thin—and the stakes are rising.

Betting Trends Driven by Playing Style

Indiana’s interior offense is the key variable in this series. The Pacers average 46 paint points in wins but just 36 in losses. Game 2 was particularly grim—they scored only four points in the paint during the first half, exposing a major weakness.

That’s no coincidence. Oklahoma City has built its defensive identity on clogging the paint. Their league-best regular-season paint defense is now showing its value. Chet Holmgren and Luguentz Dort are leading that charge, forcing Indiana to take outside shots they’re less comfortable with.

This chess match has impacted totals betting. Game 1 barely cleared the over (218), while Game 2 flew past expectations with 230 points. For Game 3, early paint dominance from Indiana may push the total higher. If Oklahoma City controls the lane again, the under could cash in.

Home Court and Player Props in Focus

Indiana will host its first NBA Finals game since 2000, and the atmosphere at Bankers Life Fieldhouse is expected to be electric. Oddsmakers are giving the Pacers a 3.5-point edge—not overwhelming, but indicative of the typical home-court bump.

Tyrese Haliburton’s performance will be crucial. Oklahoma City has centered their defensive game plan around him. If he can break through, both team and individual prop bettors may benefit. His assist totals are especially worth tracking if Indiana reclaims its paint-first attack.

Where Bettors Are Placing Their Money

Despite the split, many sharp bettors are leaning toward Oklahoma City in full-series markets. But there’s growing interest in prop plays, including:

• Pacers Team Total (Under): Back this only if Indiana fails to establish its interior game.

• Thunder Paint Points (Over): Indiana’s defense hasn’t solved Oklahoma City’s interior attack.

• Haliburton Assists (Over): Expect an uptick if Indiana resets its offensive rhythm.

Final Thoughts: A Series on a Knife’s Edge

Game 3 is shaping up to be a pivotal moment in both the series and the sportsbooks. If Indiana channels home energy and reestablishes its core identity, the narrative could swing again. But if the Thunder keep imposing their will, they could seize control—and pull the odds firmly back in their direction.

This is exactly the type of series bettors crave—tightly contested, tactically rich, and ripe with opportunity.