Bet365 Leaves the AGA – Is a Prediction Market Move Next?

Bet365 quietly dropped its membership with AGA (the American Gaming Association) this month, and the industry is taking notice. The UK-based sportsbook joins a growing list of tech-first operators that have walked away from the trade body recently. The bet365 exit from the AGA follows DraftKings and FanDuel in November, and Fanatics in December. All of them gone within a few months. The pattern is hard to ignore.

The exits share a common thread: prediction markets. The AGA has drawn a firm line against operators offering sports event contracts. The companies leaving are precisely those moving toward that space. Bet365 has not filed with the National Futures Association for approval to offer prediction products. But analysts see the resignation as a likely precursor to a move in that direction, either through a technology partnership or an acquisition.

The AGA’s Shrinking Tent

The American Gaming Association has been explicit about where it stands. In a December 2025 membership letter, AGA CEO Bill Miller stated that sports event contracts are gambling and must be regulated by states and tribes. The organization plans to defend that framework through 2026. That stance has made membership increasingly untenable for operators who see prediction markets as a growth frontier.

Suppliers have also started stepping back. OpenBet and Sportradar both declined to renew their AGA memberships in January. The move is widely seen as tied to their relationships with clients entering the prediction market space. The organization is shifting, and it appears to be doing so deliberately.

Tech Operators vs. Land-Based Giants

The fault line here is not just about products. It is about business models. Traditional casino operators like Caesars, MGM, and Penn Entertainment have steered clear of prediction markets. They have physical assets, land-based licenses, and thousands of employees to protect. State regulators have already threatened to revisit suitability for any operator that enters the sports event contract space. Legacy casino companies are not willing to take that risk.

Tech-first wagering platforms have made the opposite call. DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics are all in or actively moving toward prediction products. So is bet365. The AGA’s membership now essentially maps onto that divide.

Bet365 fits the tech-first profile clearly. The company operates in multiple US jurisdictions and in Ontario, Canada. It runs sportsbooks at a small number of retail locations owned by other companies. It has no major land-based exposure to protect. That gives it far more flexibility than an operator like MGM, which is anchored to physical casino properties worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

BetMGM Caught in the Middle

Not every major operator has a clean position on this. BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt has publicly acknowledged the tension the company faces. BetMGM remains a member of the Sports Betting Alliance and the Responsible Online Gaming Association, both of which include prediction market operators. Greenblatt described the situation as a conflict, but said the company would stay in those groups regardless.

The conflict is structural. BetMGM is a joint venture between Entain and MGM Resorts. MGM is a core AGA member with significant land-based interests. That makes a pivot toward prediction markets virtually off the table for now. The commercial reality constrains BetMGM in a way it simply does not constrain bet365.

What Comes Next

Prediction market valuations are climbing fast. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are reportedly targeting $20 billion valuations. Those numbers rival or exceed the valuations of major sportsbooks. For operators watching those figures, staying on the sidelines carries its own risks.

Bet365 has not confirmed any plans and did not respond to requests for comment. But the bet365 resignation from the AGA places it firmly in the camp of operators positioning for change. The industry split between state-regulated sports betting and federally overseen prediction markets is deepening. The AGA membership list is becoming a rough map of which side each company is on.