Blockchain.com Files for US Prediction Markets Licences

Blockchain.com has asked US regulators for permission to run prediction markets for American customers under its own name. The digital asset platform has filed two applications with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, one covering exchange operations and one covering derivatives brokerage. Approval would let it offer event contracts and crypto derivatives to retail and institutional traders directly, instead of routing them through overseas partners as it does now.

Nothing switches on yet. The CFTC has to review both filings before Blockchain.com can open prediction markets to a single US trader, and the agency has a crowded queue to work through this year. What the applications do reveal is the shape the company wants its American business to take.

Two Licences, Two Different Jobs

The first application requests designation as a designated contract market, the status that allows a company to operate a futures exchange. The second seeks registration as a futures commission merchant, the category covering businesses that act as brokers for futures and other derivatives contracts. One builds the venue. The other handles the customer side of every trade.

Together, the two approvals would give Blockchain.com the regulatory basis to run prediction markets and route derivatives orders inside the United States. Chief executive and co-founder Peter Smith said customers should be able to manage digital assets, trade derivatives and take positions on real-world events “without jumping between different apps”. He framed both filings as steps toward that goal through the appropriate regulatory frameworks.

Why Blockchain.com Wants Prediction Markets of Its Own

The company already sells both products, just not on infrastructure it controls. Blockchain.com launched prediction markets earlier in 2026 through a partnership with Polymarket, and it opened perpetual futures to some international customers on infrastructure built by Hyperliquid, a decentralised exchange. Those deals work. They also hand a slice of the margin, and most of the control, to somebody else.

Owning the venue changes that arithmetic. A licensed American operation would let Blockchain.com run prediction markets on its own book, set its own fees and keep traders inside one app instead of handing them to a partner. It would also cut the company’s exposure to third parties whose own regulatory footing keeps moving.

A Crowded Queue at the CFTC

Blockchain.com is one of twelve companies that have filed for designated contract market licences during 2026, a rush driven by how fast prediction markets have grown. The agency has approved six new designated contract markets so far this year. Applicants can take some comfort from that pace, though review periods vary and politically sensitive products rarely get the quick version.

Competitors are not standing still. Crypto.com and Gemini Space Station already operate their own event-contract marketplaces, while Coinbase reaches the category mainly through its partnership with Kalshi. Traffic runs the other way too, because Kalshi and Polymarket have both added perpetual futures, a staple crypto product, for US and international customers respectively.

The Legal Ground Keeps Shifting

Federal authorisation carries weight here because several states argue that event contracts on sports and other outcomes amount to gambling under local law. A CFTC licence gives an operator federal footing to stand on when those challenges arrive. It settles nothing about which level of government ultimately holds authority, and that fight is still live.

The regulator has sent proposed rules to the White House intended to reinforce its jurisdiction over the sector. Litigation involving the NFL has raised a separate question about the status of certain event contracts under federal swap rules. The surrounding dispute, with Kalshi at its centre, has drawn interest from the Supreme Court. Any company building a US event-contract business is building on ground that could move beneath it.

A Public Listing Sits in the Background

These filings are not the only regulatory process the company has running. On 21 May it confirmed a confidential draft registration statement submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission, a standard early step toward a stock market listing. The company left size and price range undetermined and tied any offering to market conditions and regulatory review.

The two tracks feed each other. A regulated American business selling prediction markets and derivatives would give investors a cleaner growth story at the exact moment Blockchain.com goes looking for public money. Approval would also move revenue that currently flows through partners onto the company’s own books.

What the Sector Expects

Projections for event trading have become extraordinary. Analysts at Bernstein expect annual volume across the sector to reach $10 trillion by 2035, measured against an estimated $410 billion for 2026. Forecasts on that scale assume regulators keep drawing the line roughly where operators want it drawn.

That assumption carries the whole story. If both licences come through, Blockchain.com gets prediction markets, derivatives and digital asset custody under one roof while the industry’s legal definition is still being written. If the CFTC takes its time, or if the courts decide event contracts belong somewhere other than the futures market, the applications become a bet on an outcome nobody can price yet.