Brazil Bans Prediction Markets and Blocks 28 Platforms

Brazil has drawn a firm line on prediction markets. In a government press conference held on April 24, finance officials confirmed that Brazil prediction markets are illegal under existing law, and that enforcement action has already begun. Twenty-eight platforms have been blocked so far, with more expected to follow.

Why Brazil Said No

The decision comes from the highest levels of Brazil’s government. Finance Minister Dario Durigan and Chief of Staff Miriam Belchior addressed the press directly, leaving no room for interpretation. The National Monetary Council issued a resolution the same day, making clear that sporting events, online gaming events, and political or cultural events cannot serve as underlying assets for derivatives contracts.

That is exactly what prediction market platforms had been trying to do. Rather than registering as betting operators under Brazil’s gambling framework, they positioned their products as financial derivatives. The government rejected that framing outright.

“We do not want to expose Brazilians to risks and financial losses,” Belchior said at the press conference.

Durigan was equally direct. Offering bets on random events, including things like daily weather conditions, does not comply with the laws passed for sports betting and online gaming. “Our goal is to curb any type of illegal betting,” he stated.

The Legal Framework Behind the Ban

Brazil launched its regulated online gambling market in January 2025. Since then, regulators have blocked more than 39,000 unlicensed betting sites. Officials made clear that prediction market platforms will be treated the same way.

The relevant legislation is Law 14.790, which covers fixed-odds betting and online games. Secretary of Prizes and Betting Daniele Correa Cardoso explained that prediction platforms entered Brazil offering bets under a different name.

“This is illegal and has not been recognised by the Brazilian government,” she said.

Regis Dudena, Secretary of Economic Reforms, confirmed the position.

“Betting that is not related to sporting events and online games was excluded from this regulation. Any other type of betting is prohibited.”

Dudena also explained how the situation escalated. Prediction platforms began growing quickly, offering products that looked and functioned like bets, but were classified as financial securities. That prompted a formal request for the National Monetary Council to clarify what qualified as a derivative. The council’s answer was to exclude predictions from its scope entirely.

Platforms Already Affected

Brazil’s national telecommunications regulator, Anatel, has already started blocking sites. Twenty-eight platforms have been taken offline, and officials confirmed the process will continue against any new platforms that emerge.

Polymarket, one of the best-known prediction market platforms globally, was named directly by officials. When asked whether it would be blocked, Dudena confirmed that all platforms offering services outside the scope of the gambling legislation or the National Monetary Council resolution will face action.

Kalshi also appears to be at risk. The US-based prediction market operator announced last month that it was planning to launch in Brazil through a partnership with XP International. That launch now looks unlikely to proceed.

What This Means for Brazil’s Gambling Market

Brazil’s regulated betting market is still young, but it is moving fast. The government has shown it is willing to act quickly when it sees unlicensed activity gaining ground. Blocking over 39,000 sites in just over a year demonstrates both the scale of the problem and the pace of enforcement.

The prediction market situation is a different kind of challenge. These were not fly-by-night operators ignoring local law. Several of them are well-funded, globally recognised platforms that built an argument around financial regulation rather than gambling regulation. Brazil examined that argument and rejected it.

Consumer secretary Ricardo Morishita used the opportunity to remind players to use only regulated platforms, identifiable by the bet.br domain. The message was clear: if a platform is not authorised under Brazilian law, it will be blocked.

For operators watching Brazil’s market closely, this decision signals that regulatory creativity will not be rewarded. The country knows what kind of gambling market it wants to build, and it is not interested in products that test the boundaries of that framework.