Fliff Eyes Prediction Markets as Sweepstakes Map Shrinks

Two more sweepstakes-linked operators want a seat at the federal table. Fliff and Onyx Odds have both filed for licences that would let them reach prediction markets through the derivatives system. That route runs under federal oversight instead of state gambling law. The paperwork landed at the National Futures Association on August 12, submitted under Fliff FCM LLC and Onyx Markets LLC. Both applications cover Futures Commission Merchant status, NFA membership and swap-firm registration, and both remain pending.

What the Filings Actually Allow

An FCM licence carries a specific and fairly narrow function. It lets a company act as an intermediary for futures, options and swap transactions, taking customer orders and handling the money behind them. It does not give that company the right to run its own exchange.

That distinction matters. Platforms such as Kalshi hold Designated Contract Market status under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That is the licence needed to list and match event contracts. Neither applicant has asked for it. So the filings point toward distribution rather than exchange ownership.

Fliff has not confirmed what its prediction markets product would look like, and Onyx has stayed quiet too. The applications signal intent to participate in federally regulated event contracts, but they stop short of describing a product. Approval timelines at the NFA vary, and pending status guarantees nothing.

Fliff Reaches Toward Prediction Markets From a Shrinking Base

Fliff built its audience as a social sportsbook running on a sweepstakes structure. Players use virtual currencies to make sports predictions without opening a traditional betting account. The company also runs Sidepot Casino and earlier expanded into fantasy-style contests with Fliff Pick’Em. CEO Matt Ricci has described the social sportsbook as a way to capture sports betting interest while reaching people outside the licensed market.

That base has been shrinking fast. By the end of July, Fliff had excluded 20 states from its sweepstakes products. Iowa, Indiana and Maine came off the list after each passed measures against dual-currency gaming. Every new state law strips out another slice of addressable audience. A move by Fliff into prediction markets sidesteps that problem, because federal registration does not depend on 50 separate legislatures agreeing with the model.

Onyx Already Has a Foot in the Door

Onyx arrives from a slightly different position. The company already operates Onyx Predictions, an NFA-registered Introducing Broker, so it has worked in the space through a partner-facing role. The new Onyx Markets application could let it bring more of that activity in-house rather than routing business through others.

Funding backs the ambition. Onyx closed a $20 million Series A supported by Payward, the parent company of Kraken and NinjaTrader, at a $220 million valuation. That partnership included plans to build products on Payward’s US derivatives infrastructure. An FCM licence would fit neatly into that stack.

The Race Already Has Several Lanes

Fliff and Onyx join a queue for prediction markets that has been forming since the start of the year. Novig and ProphetX took the harder route, seeking DCM approval to run their own exchanges. Betr skipped the application process altogether and bought Ascent Capital Management, an NFA-registered Introducing Broker. MyPrize chose partnership instead, linking up with Crypto.com to offer sports, political and cryptocurrency contracts through infrastructure that already carried federal approval.

The exodus behind those moves has been brutal. VGW, Modo, Stake and Pulsz all pulled out of certain states as new laws took effect. Money Factory and CoinFrenzy closed down completely. For the operators still standing, the derivatives route is one of the few doors left open.

Volume Growth Explains the Appetite

Trading activity gives these applications a commercial logic. Volumes on platforms such as Kalshi climbed sharply during major sporting events, and operators expect another surge once football season gets going. Sports contracts have driven most of that growth, which puts companies with existing sports audiences in a strong starting position.

Dr. Laila Mintas, former head of PlayUp in the United States and now CEO of 365predictions, has put the potential market size near $1 trillion. She argues the space is large enough to support many companies at once. That view is not universal, but it captures why so many gaming brands keep filing paperwork.

A Trade of One Battleground for Another

None of this guarantees a smooth landing. State attorneys general have gone after event-contract platforms in Rhode Island, Washington and other jurisdictions. The CFTC’s own position keeps drawing legal challenges too. Judges have handed down mixed rulings, so the federal shield is thinner than it looked a year ago.

Fliff and Onyx are still trading one contested framework for another. The difference is that the federal version offers a single rulebook to argue over instead of a patchwork that changes every legislative session. Their applications now sit with the NFA. Approval would drop two more sweepstakes names into a market that grows more crowded by the month. For Fliff, prediction markets look like the clearest path back to growth after a year of retreat.