When Indonesia Blocked Polymarket Over a Presidential Bet

A crypto prediction platform taking bets on a sitting president’s exit from power was always going to attract attention. In Indonesia, it attracted a block. The country’s Communications and Digital Ministry moved against Polymarket this week, citing illegal online gambling laws after the platform listed a market on how long President Prabowo Subianto would remain in office. For Indonesia, Polymarket crossed a line the government had no interest in leaving open.

The Prabowo market appeared on May 21, one day after the president announced a plan to centralise control over several of the country’s most important commodity exports, including coal and palm oil. The policy sparked immediate interest from investors watching the administration’s economic direction. By the time the ministry responded, the market had taken over $51,000 in bets and reflected an 11% implied chance that Prabowo would not remain in office through the year. His term runs until 2029.

Indonesia Classifies Polymarket as Illegal Gambling

The Ministry did not treat this as a grey area. Alexander Sabar, director general of digital space supervision at the Communications and Digital Ministry, stated that prediction markets involve monetary wagering on uncertain outcomes. Under Indonesian law, that places them squarely within the definition of online gambling. Gambling is illegal in Indonesia, and the ministry said the government would not provide space for any form of it online.

Sabar’s position was direct. Platforms like Polymarket involve monetary betting and speculation over uncertain events, making them illegal under the country’s laws and regulations. The ministry also confirmed it was reviewing social media accounts connected to Polymarket as part of its broader response. Polymarket did not comment publicly.

A Country Already Fighting Offshore Gambling

Indonesia has spent years trying to contain offshore gambling activity. The scale of the problem gives real weight to why the ministry moved quickly. Indonesians lost an estimated 327 trillion rupiah, equivalent to roughly $18.4 billion, gambling online in 2023 alone. Authorities have consistently framed new enforcement actions as part of a broader effort to protect citizens from unlicensed betting products that operate beyond the reach of local regulators.

In that context, the Indonesia block on Polymarket fits a clear pattern. The platform accepts crypto-based wagers, operates without local licences, and offers markets on political events that carry obvious sensitivities in a country with active gambling restrictions. Officials had existing grounds to act. The Prabowo market gave them a specific and visible reason to do so publicly.

Polymarket Is Banned in More Than 30 Countries

Indonesia is not acting in isolation. More than 30 countries have reportedly restricted or banned Polymarket. In Southeast Asia, Singapore added the platform to its Gambling Regulatory Authority blacklist in January 2025. Myanmar users cannot access it due to U.S. sanctions, though for entirely different reasons.

The broader debate around prediction markets has intensified across multiple regions. Critics argue that the products fall into a gap between gambling law and financial regulation, creating uncertainty that platforms have exploited. Some regulators point to market integrity concerns as well. Suspected accounts on Polymarket were alleged to have earned more than $2.4 million betting on the timing of U.S. military actions in the Middle East, with a reported win rate of 98%. In the United States, several states have argued that sports-related prediction market contracts operate as unlicensed gambling products, while the platforms themselves argue their contracts fall under financial market rules rather than gambling frameworks.

Political Betting Adds a Harder Edge

What separates the Indonesia case from most routine enforcement actions is the political dimension. Prediction markets have been listed in plenty of countries for years, but a market directly tied to a sitting leader’s departure from power carries obvious implications. It creates a visible and politically sensitive target. Indonesia’s ministry was quick to frame the block as a gambling enforcement measure, but the Prabowo market was the clear catalyst, and that context is not incidental.

Authorities have not indicated they plan to pursue any further action beyond the access block and the social media account review. For now, the message from Jakarta is clear: prediction markets are gambling, and Indonesia does not intend to treat them any other way.